Things are heating up in the Gulf of Hormuz. British, French and U.S. warships are now patrolling and protecting the international sea lanes of which transport a third of the world’s petroleum. Iran knows it has been cornered. It can threaten to close the Straits of Hormuz, but it Navy is not large enough to enforce it. Any attack against an American or other naval vessels could result in Iran’s Navy and other sites that are firing against ships to be destroyed in hours by tomahawk missiles, and air strikes.
Unless the regime in Iran are totally ignorant about the capacity of the U.S., French and British navies, they are “rattling sabers” against the U.S. in defiance against the sanctions that have been imposed and those in the future which are backed by nothing. The Gulf states will not defend Iran. In this fray, Russia and China are silent, not supporting sanctions or supporting Iran either. While China can still be relied upon for some revenue. It too has ties to the U.S. and the displeasure by the U.S. with China over this issue could result in some sanctions being placed on them and embarrassment by the world community. Russia will likely fall in line due to its political and economic ties to the West. Iran is being isolated by the world community. Iran can also be assured that the U.S. is carefully planning out an assault on Iran with its superior technology and trained specialists. if necessary.
Iran has two choices: 1) escalate the tensions by stepping up their rhetoric and attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz; or 2) come to the negotiating table. The first choice, as we discussed in the previous paragraph is certain to result in the destruction of its Navy and other defense infrastructure. So, this not a real option.for them. Playing through this scenario which the government in Iran has probably already surmised and calculated, one could surmise that Iran must come to the negotiating table.
Hold the presses! In the background is something sinister brewing? Iran’s rhetoric may be a ‘smoke screen’ for accelerating their aims to acquire a nuclear weapon. Iran is now negotiating with the Pakistan and Afghanistan upon a proposed natural gas pipeline between Iran and Pakistan, passing through Afghanistan. Will these ‘allies’ of the U.S. cut a deal with Iran that will have as a part of its package some exchange of technology and expertise from Pakistan to Iran for its nuclear program.in exchange for a ‘sweetheart’ deal for Iranian petroleum via a proposed pipeline? The U.S. is aware of the potential of these deals and is now offering Pakistan a better deal on natural gas that than the proposed Iran-Pakistan pipeline. In this process, Iran may have already acquired technology and expertise from Pakistan. The U.S. should keep a watch out on Iran going behind the scenes to acquire nuclear technology and expertise. Is North Korea hanging around in the shadows?
What is a possible scenario for this complex situation? One is that Iran will continue to create chaos while secretly attempting to acquire nuclear technology and expertise from Pakistan and perhaps North Korea. A second option would be that Iran would come to the negotiation table, and there will be furher delays which will give more time for it to develop a workable nuclear weapon. It appears certain that the Iranians are determined to acquire nuclear weapons by any means. All the efforts by the U.S. and its allies could be for naught. The world should be ready for a nuclear Iran and its consequences.
For further information about this issue, go to the following article posted by online by Reuters on 25 January titled “Even without Hormuz blockade, Iran has options”: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/us-iran-idUSTRE80O15720120125?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=71
For information concering the potential deal between the U.S and Pakistan for a natural gas deal, go to the following article posted online by the International Herald Tribune, titled, “Lobbying: US lures Pakistan with cheaper oil than Iran”: http://tribune.com.pk/story/326785/lobbying-us-lures-pakistan-with-cheaper-gas-than-iran/
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